As we have witnessed the unprecedented growth in year 2007, we are also experiencing unprecedented growth of inflation all over the world in addition to unprecedented hike of crude oil. Now, the question is can the global economy sustain the economic volatility? On the other hand, USA is hitting by sub-prime crisis which aggravate the economic wound further. No one can tell you or predict if the global economy could recover from it within the specified timeframe. Of course economy could recover but when? Will it cross section with high inflation that cause by shortage of food and great demand of oil? If yes, we must work together to develop a get-well-plan else we will face economic and social turmoil in no time. Following are some of the causes that put the global economy into risk.
1) Rising oil price (hitting US$130 per barrel or more)
2) US subprime crisis may take at least 5 years to recover
3) Shortage of food
4) Inflation due to high crude oil price
5) World disaster that hit on agriculture countries
6) Most importantly, global warming
How can we reduce the impact and improve the current situation? Subsequent are some recommendations that everyone could help
1) Always adhere to green policy and use energy saving equipment
2) Continue to spend with cautious else the economy will shrink and lead to massive layoff whicn in turn further shrink the economy. This is a cyclical process.
3) Reduce the consumption of meat because the amount of grains used to feed the animals are far more greater than humans consume. If we take less meat, we can use the grains to feed more people and control the rising cost of food.
4) Reduce the dependence on petrochemical products. Reduce the electicity consumption or look for alternative such as solar energy.
5) Stockpile more grains in case of emergency such as natural disaster.
6) Comply with green policy or global warming policy. Reduce the CO2 release and stop using LEAD products.
These are merely some of the recommendations that we could play our part to protect the earth and mankind. If we ignore, we must prepare to face the consequences from the nature.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
The Cross-Straits Issue (China-Taiwan)
Political Science is a complex and sophisticated academic studies in higher education. Researcher must understand well about the cultures, traditions, behaviours and the history of each country they would like to study on. Nevertheless, politics is a very powerful tool to manipulate and cause destruction to nations and countries. A good example are the downfall of Soviet Union, Communism and so forth.
Strategically, there are four super power countries with great military strength, namely, US, China, Russia and Euro(Nato). However, that isn't sufficient to enable one to be powerful but require the integration of the country's economic growth or in short, positive and steady GDP growth. As such, we can narrow down to US, China and European Union. Given the experience(history) and background of these economic and military regions, EU and China have better advantage in terms of their historical background. They belong to great strategists whereas US can be categorized under advanced technology war game. In reality, China is the most promising country to lead the next century and pose the greatest threats to US economically as most analysts believed. I will focus on the topic of APAC economic stability especially China and Taiwan.
Why is Taiwan so important to China and US? Strictly speaking, Taiwan is a good strategic location despite the westernized culture for both countries. Since Japan regime will not jeorpadize the country, Japanese will restrict its co-operation with US to certain extent. In addition, South Korea would not want to exasperate its counterpart, North Korea and China and that will restrict US military expansion in North-East Asia. Under such circumstances, Taiwan is the most appropriate strategic partner to work with as to restrain China from growing too fast. The Taiwan Government has strong commitment with US regime and will provide a military base to US to protect the country. A win-win situation occur between both countries at this point in time.
Why would China bother to integrate Taiwan into the mainland? First of all, China would not allow US to build its military base in Taiwan which is few hundred kilometer away from China economy hub. Secondly, China would not allow US to use Taiwan as a media of communication to disrupt its nations via newspaper or media broadcasting. Third, this might portray a wrong signal to other states such as Tibet and SinKiang where they have long for independence. Eventually, all these would complicate the matter further and cause instability to China and the region. The economy of APAC would be dragged and terrorism will rise due to chaotic state. The impact is as high as the tension between Pakistan and India or North Korea and South Korea and Japan.
So, what is the ideal resolution to rest the matter? In my opinion, peaceful negotiation is the only way to sort out everything and Taiwan must return to mainland but of course, with conditions that can be accepted by both regimes. Nonetheless, time is a factor that determine whether war would have occurred in the cross straits. In addition, the increased competition in military build-up would also determine the time of war. China will not attack Taiwan by 2008 if Taiwan remains its status quo. However, year after 2010, even if Taiwan remains its status quo, China may launch an attack to cease the tension for the benefits of long term strategic economic growth.
Why China will not fight with Taiwan if status quo remained at the moment? To my analysis, given the current military strength of China, winning the war is a matter of time but this is considered short-term plan. China needs to consider the aftermath where the paralysis of Taiwan economy will require enormous amount of money to stabilize the situation. Subsequently, feeding the people of Taiwan also require another enormous amount of money. However, these have not included the aftermath within China itself such as Fujian, Shanghai and etc. If the recovery and rebuilding exercise take longer, the entire China may lead to chaotic state. Again, Tibet and SinKiang may riot and declare independence. The ongoing problems will not rest easily until the economy of China return to normal. How certain would China launch an attack after 2010? This is possible if China has successfully reserved enough of capital to sustain the war and the aftermath.
A good strategist will not rush for war if he is uncertain about the winning. Resource is extremely crucial to the success of war. China might not have sufficient resources currently and the impact is high if US is involved. Crude oil reserves is the most crucial point and China needs to plan for the shortage for the next 20 years. As a result, building a long pipeline from China via Myammar to Middle East can be a backup resource for China to sustain the crude oil. During the war, sea transportation will be in critical alert and maybe blocked by US to cut the supply. Alternative solution is vital for China to take into consideration. The construction of the crude oil pipeline may take more than 8 years. Hence, my conjecture that China may attack after 2010 is highly possible.
A peaceful reunification is utmost important to ASIAN countries particularly Singapore. Singapore will be put into awkward position if the war occur where they have established good links and relationship with China, US and Taiwan. And the impact is high due to extensive investment in these countries. Let's pray for a peaceful reunification.
Aug 2004 by zifang
Strategically, there are four super power countries with great military strength, namely, US, China, Russia and Euro(Nato). However, that isn't sufficient to enable one to be powerful but require the integration of the country's economic growth or in short, positive and steady GDP growth. As such, we can narrow down to US, China and European Union. Given the experience(history) and background of these economic and military regions, EU and China have better advantage in terms of their historical background. They belong to great strategists whereas US can be categorized under advanced technology war game. In reality, China is the most promising country to lead the next century and pose the greatest threats to US economically as most analysts believed. I will focus on the topic of APAC economic stability especially China and Taiwan.
Why is Taiwan so important to China and US? Strictly speaking, Taiwan is a good strategic location despite the westernized culture for both countries. Since Japan regime will not jeorpadize the country, Japanese will restrict its co-operation with US to certain extent. In addition, South Korea would not want to exasperate its counterpart, North Korea and China and that will restrict US military expansion in North-East Asia. Under such circumstances, Taiwan is the most appropriate strategic partner to work with as to restrain China from growing too fast. The Taiwan Government has strong commitment with US regime and will provide a military base to US to protect the country. A win-win situation occur between both countries at this point in time.
Why would China bother to integrate Taiwan into the mainland? First of all, China would not allow US to build its military base in Taiwan which is few hundred kilometer away from China economy hub. Secondly, China would not allow US to use Taiwan as a media of communication to disrupt its nations via newspaper or media broadcasting. Third, this might portray a wrong signal to other states such as Tibet and SinKiang where they have long for independence. Eventually, all these would complicate the matter further and cause instability to China and the region. The economy of APAC would be dragged and terrorism will rise due to chaotic state. The impact is as high as the tension between Pakistan and India or North Korea and South Korea and Japan.
So, what is the ideal resolution to rest the matter? In my opinion, peaceful negotiation is the only way to sort out everything and Taiwan must return to mainland but of course, with conditions that can be accepted by both regimes. Nonetheless, time is a factor that determine whether war would have occurred in the cross straits. In addition, the increased competition in military build-up would also determine the time of war. China will not attack Taiwan by 2008 if Taiwan remains its status quo. However, year after 2010, even if Taiwan remains its status quo, China may launch an attack to cease the tension for the benefits of long term strategic economic growth.
Why China will not fight with Taiwan if status quo remained at the moment? To my analysis, given the current military strength of China, winning the war is a matter of time but this is considered short-term plan. China needs to consider the aftermath where the paralysis of Taiwan economy will require enormous amount of money to stabilize the situation. Subsequently, feeding the people of Taiwan also require another enormous amount of money. However, these have not included the aftermath within China itself such as Fujian, Shanghai and etc. If the recovery and rebuilding exercise take longer, the entire China may lead to chaotic state. Again, Tibet and SinKiang may riot and declare independence. The ongoing problems will not rest easily until the economy of China return to normal. How certain would China launch an attack after 2010? This is possible if China has successfully reserved enough of capital to sustain the war and the aftermath.
A good strategist will not rush for war if he is uncertain about the winning. Resource is extremely crucial to the success of war. China might not have sufficient resources currently and the impact is high if US is involved. Crude oil reserves is the most crucial point and China needs to plan for the shortage for the next 20 years. As a result, building a long pipeline from China via Myammar to Middle East can be a backup resource for China to sustain the crude oil. During the war, sea transportation will be in critical alert and maybe blocked by US to cut the supply. Alternative solution is vital for China to take into consideration. The construction of the crude oil pipeline may take more than 8 years. Hence, my conjecture that China may attack after 2010 is highly possible.
A peaceful reunification is utmost important to ASIAN countries particularly Singapore. Singapore will be put into awkward position if the war occur where they have established good links and relationship with China, US and Taiwan. And the impact is high due to extensive investment in these countries. Let's pray for a peaceful reunification.
Aug 2004 by zifang
China Sichuan Earthquake : Catastrophe
As a overseas chinese, I am greatly affected by the disaster struck on China on May 12. I am very sad to see the people suffered and injured in this event. My despair can never be healed and what I can do now is to pray to Heaven to minimize the casualty and hope the dam will not aggravate the calamity further. If my sacrifice could save the people from the disaster, I would not hesitate to do so.
I do not understand why China always encounter disaster since thousand of years ago. The current earthquake has destroyed the cultural relics left by our ancestors and the dreams of Han to be the most prominent clan. I am shattered by this event and do not know why this has happened to us. However, to think positively, I would like to thank GOD for being merciful and benevolence. I came to realize that nothing in this world is permanent and forever albeit our ancestors had tried their best to leave every trait and trace to us.
This disaster has alarmed the Chinese to learn how to cope with disaster in near future and how we should work together to face every challenge and obstacles. The event has created a space for the Chinese to unite, to love and to care . Though the price is too high but we will never forget this event and the leadership of the Chinese leaders to help and calm the people in Sichuan.
We should not surrender our fate to Heaven but to face every challenge given by GOD and we should learn from the lesson where the force of every nature can never be underestimated. Love our land and surrounding and do not hurt the nature else the price will be even higher in future.
The aftermath of this disaster is projected to be more than USD$30 billions. I urge everyone to do their very best to help building the home for the homeless and donate as much as you could. Distribution of weatlh is the responsibility of the rich through charity and is the core of every religious teaching.
Helping people is to help yourself. We never know when disaster will hit on us!!
I do not understand why China always encounter disaster since thousand of years ago. The current earthquake has destroyed the cultural relics left by our ancestors and the dreams of Han to be the most prominent clan. I am shattered by this event and do not know why this has happened to us. However, to think positively, I would like to thank GOD for being merciful and benevolence. I came to realize that nothing in this world is permanent and forever albeit our ancestors had tried their best to leave every trait and trace to us.
This disaster has alarmed the Chinese to learn how to cope with disaster in near future and how we should work together to face every challenge and obstacles. The event has created a space for the Chinese to unite, to love and to care . Though the price is too high but we will never forget this event and the leadership of the Chinese leaders to help and calm the people in Sichuan.
We should not surrender our fate to Heaven but to face every challenge given by GOD and we should learn from the lesson where the force of every nature can never be underestimated. Love our land and surrounding and do not hurt the nature else the price will be even higher in future.
The aftermath of this disaster is projected to be more than USD$30 billions. I urge everyone to do their very best to help building the home for the homeless and donate as much as you could. Distribution of weatlh is the responsibility of the rich through charity and is the core of every religious teaching.
Helping people is to help yourself. We never know when disaster will hit on us!!
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