The current economic is still obscure not until the second half of 2009. Albeit Obama has been selected as US President, he could not do much but to cooperate with China, Japan and Russia to counteract and rescue US. If the financial crisis in US continue to worsen, Obama will need to beg the world to bail US instead. Obviously, US is in a declining state not even Obama could improve the current situation.
The shifting of superpower is no longer a doubt and Americans must prepare to change as what Obama has mentioned in his presidential campaign. Americans must accept that US is no longer a superpower as it is and the power will be distributed among China and Russia. The next bust will be UK. The world is depending on China economic stimulus plan and China should expand their internal spending and economic enlargement rather than investing in US junks.
However, the stability of the world is still largely depend on global inflation and OPEC will determine the growth of global economy or deep recession. Should OPEC cut the oil production, inflation will rise and the worst impact will be transferred to middle east as they mostly consumers than producers except crude oil. As such, crude oil company will gain but the people will suffer. Worst case scenario will be chaos in middle east and rest of the world.
On the other hand, Taiwan will be another victim where they are badly hit by world economy and their internal political stability. DPP will create political unrest and conflicts among Taiwanese and scare investors away. Taiwan is no longer a safe place for investors not because of China but their internal conflicts as witnessed by recent unrest due to China officials visit.
Lastly, investors and FDI should start injecting funds and move their business operations to Asia as to avoid bankruptcy that might have been caused by US recession. Change we need and the super economy is changing from west to east.
Monday, November 10, 2008
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